The 2009 Detroit Tigers: The Starters

The 2009 Detroit Tigers have inspired a lot of hope in Tigers fans this year. What's not to love here? I mean, they've had excellent starting pitching, a closer who's only blown one save this season, one of the better hitters in the American League, great defense to assist the pitching, and a good mix of veterans and youngsters. With all of that, you might think that it's a proper mixture for a 1st place team. If you thought that, you'd be right.

But it's all a mirage.

The starting pitching has been lauded by pundits and fans so far this season on the backs of phenomenal performances from Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and at times Rick Porcello. But when you dig deeper you see that Verlander is the only pitcher of the bunch that has been truly dominant. Verlander has managed to put up an FIP under 3.00, but has been routinely hurt by the defense which is why his ERA isn't as good as someone like Jackson or Jarrod Washburn. The reason his FIP is so solid is because he's striking out the most batters in the AL, limiting his walks (under 3 per 9 innings), and keeping the longball in check. Justin has been an ace in every sense of the term this season, and has been a huge lift for Detroit the whole year (and I'll eat a plate full of crow for doubting him in Spring Training).

On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been severely overrated this season because of his top 5 AL ERA. Now do not get me wrong (don't do it!), I've got nothing but love for Edwin. However, I just think that what he is and what people think he is are two very different things. His FIP is almost 120 points higher than his ERA, and that is completely huge. He's brought his K rate back up to around 7 per 9 innings, and has shaved almost 1.5 BB/9 IP off of his career average (that's damn good improvement). His ERA has trended backwards in every month since the start of the season, and his August ERA is very close to what his season FIP is (around 4). But like I said, I'm completely fine with what Jackson is at this point (he is young enough that he could improve, though), and that is a guy that will more often than not give you a quality start and maybe more. This is all especially great because he's young, and was acquired for basically nothing (Matt Joyce was going to have a hard time finding playing time on the current Tigers team).

The rookie phenom Rick Porcello has had a very good season so far..........for a 20 year old. He's sporting an ERA that is north of 4 by a shade, but he's also doing that with a very Armando Galarraga-like FIP over 5. Frederick does help his luck by getting a metric ton worth of groundballs (and has 21 double plays turned as a result). What Fred does to hurt himself is walk 3 batters per 9 innings, and allow a bunch of HRs (18 in just over 115 innings, ouch). Now walking 3/9 IP would be ok if you were striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP like Justin Verlander (shit, it's not even that bad for someone like Edwin Jackson). But when you're a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (hey only 5 per 9 IP), you're getting a good amount of runners on the basepaths with a mix of walks and hits simply because you allow so many balls in play. Then when you factor the HRs in, it just gets really really ugly (thus, the FIP over 5). BUT, Fred is only 20 years old and will have a full year of big league experience under his belt for next season. If he can tighten up his command on his breaking pitches, and shave the walks, he will be a very dominant starter for a very long time. Just not now.

Last year was a very good year for Armando Galarraga, and he was on top of the world (or at the very least, on top of Detroit). His ERA wasn't amazing at 3.73. But in a rotation as awful as the 2008 Tigers, it was sterling. Armando may as well be the basis for this entire post, because his last season is what this season has been, a mirage. He was AMAZINGLY lucky with a .247 Batting Average on Balls in Play (which was among the league leaders), but peripherals that just didn't match or add up. He struck out just over 6 batters per 9 IP, and walked 3 per 9 IP, and allowed almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings (also terrible). What does this add up to? An FIP that's darn near 5. What is Armando's ERA this year, you ask? Why it's right around 5 (as is his FIP, just like last year). Galarraga has actually taken a small step back with his peripherals this year, and has been almost completely terrible all season. Karma can be a cruel thing. It's a far cry from the #2 starter that most moronic sports talk radio callers thought he would be, but this is what he is. He is a back end starter.

The 5th and final spot has been occupied by an unholy combination of Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner, Jarrod Washburn, Alfredo Figaro, Eddie Bonine, and Jeremy Bonderman. None of these starters has been any amount of good (which is disappointing for Bonderman, but to be expected from Washburn). Figaro and Bonine are just farmhands, and not a lot was expected from them. Willis showed a small glimpse of promise with a strong outing against the Texas Rangers early on in the season, but imploded to look like the Dontrelle Willis of 2008. Zach Miner has been in and out of the rotation and bullpen, and has looked terrible in both roles. Take Rick Porcello's walk and strikeout rates from this season, and apply them to a pitcher in his mid 30s and you have Jarrod Washburn. The problem with Washburn is he isn't a groundballer like Porcello, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play was at Armando Galarraga levels from 2008. Add to that the fact that the outfield defense in Seattle is one of the best in all of baseball, and you had a recipe for severe regression (Detroit's simply isn't even close). While Jarrod probably won't be quite as bad as he has been thus far for the Tigers, you probably shouldn't expect it to be a *lot* better. Washburn is absolutely not the 2.50-2.70 ERA that some fans thought the Tigers were trading for (and I pray to god the front office didn't think that's what they were getting in exchange for Robles and French).

What is it that you get after you add all of this together? An ace, a guy who'll give you quality start almost every time out (and maybe more), a 20 year old who may be a year or two away from really coming into his own and looks overmatched more often than not, and a couple of pitcher with FIPs approaching 5 (the very definition of back end starters). It's a far cry from what some were (and are) saying was a rotation that could go toe to toe with any in the AL in the playoffs. I believe that Verlander could stand toe to toe with any starter in baseball, and that Edwin Jackson would give the Tigers a shot to win against most teams #2 starter. But after that, you're working with a bunch of guys that are pitching like back of the rotation starters and I don't believe that's enough to get you by in the playoffs.


Then again, Josh Fogg lit it up in a couple of starts in the 2007 postseason (until the World Series, ack). So you never know.