Monday, August 24, 2009

The 2009 Detroit Tigers: The Hitters

Pitching has completely carried the Tigers in 2009.

Why would I start a post about hitting with a glowing statement about the pitching staff? That would be because the Motown offense hasn't failed to disappoint at every single turn. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, it seems that every Tiger has had a down year in some way offensively. Some would argue that the other player who was worth anything in the first half for the Tigers would be Brandon Inge. For the most part they would be right.

Brandon lit the world on fire in April, and actually posted an OPS higher than Miguel Cabrera (over 1.1!!). In addition to surprising with a top 3 bat for his position, Inge provided his trademark excellent defense. All of this made for one of the most valuable 3rd baseman in the entire American League. Unfortunately for Inge, the baseball season isn't 81 games. After the All Star Break he's posted an OPS of .604 and .514 in July and August respectively. He was on track to post a career year (pretty easily), but seems to have been derailed by a couple of faulty knees (and an outright refusal to go on the DL).

There has been nothing to derail Miguel Cabrera. After what some would call a sub-par debut in Detroit in 2008, 2009 has been nothing but roses for Miguel. He's resumed the roll he was on while on the Marlins, and is tearing the cover off the ball. Statistically, Cabrera has been the 3rd best hitter in the AL this season, behind only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis. Putting up his best OBP since 2006, Cabrera is on pace to easily eclipse the palty (for him) 56 walks he drew last season. Some have nitpicked that Cabrera hasn't come through in enough clutch situations this year, but browse the baseball-reference.com "clutch stats" and tell me how terrible he is. I've got all day.

Curtis Granderson was supposed to be a leadoff hitter to rival Grady Sizemore, and he is. Wait, how is that disappointing? The problem lies in the fact that both are having *very* down years. Don't get me wrong, Curtis hasn't been a terrible player this season. But when you see a guy post a couple years consecutively of OPS+ above 125 along with great defense, you expect him to continue being a quasi-superstar into his prime (and Curtis is in his prime). What Tigers fans have been treated to is a leadoff hitter who has improved his HR stroke (to the tune of a career high 24 so far this season), yet has a lower slugging percentage than either of the last two years. His OBP has dropped by almost 30 points despite walking at about the same rate as last season, and his batting average is beginning to reach Brandon Inge type levels. Most of this is due to Curtis being a horror against lefties this season (hello there .500 OPS). After seeing Granderson do decently well against southpaws in 2008 (.700 OPS), most of this can probably be attributed to bad luck by way of an abnormally low batting average on balls in play. There's no reason to think that Curtis won't go back to the exceptional hitting CF that we all know and love, but the luck just hasn't been there so far.

Depending upon guys like Granderson and Cabrera is perfectly fine, because they're guys that are in their prime. When you depend on veterans who are in their early to mid thirties, you can run into problems like the Tigers have in 2009. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen looked every bit as washed up in the first half of the season as David Ortiz, but with a fraction of the media coverage. Guillen was one of the worst regulars in all of major league baseball before he went on the DL (mercifully) with a shoulder ailment, and Ordonez performed so terribly that he was legitimately platooned with rookie Clete Thomas. Magglio was so bad in the first half that most were advocating his outright release (not only because of the bad hitting, but because of a plate appearance clause in his contract). Both have experienced a nice resurgence in the second half, but Tigers fans are left wondering which players they're going to get next season. If they hadn't bounced back in the second half.........they'd be hitting like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.

Both Laird and Everett were brought in for their gloves, and much wasn't thought of the offensive prowess of either. But what the Tigers got (offensively) was more ghastly than could've been imagined. There are two hitters in the AL this season that had 300 plate appearances who have been worse than Adam Everett with the bat. Those two hitters? Luminary AL Central SS Yuniesky Betancourt (whom some have called possibly the worst regular in all of baseball), and disappointing Rays catcher Dioner Navarro. Where is Laird on this dubious list? He's the 8th *worst* hitter in the AL. Whether Detroit expected this kind of production is unknown, though he actually put up a worse season a couple of years back for Texas. Both of these players have an excuse because they both play passsable (Everett) and amazing (Laird) defense at premium defensive positions.

Josh Anderson was acquired in Spring Training to give the Tigers a boost in outfield defense from the corners, and to give them a legit threat on the basepaths. He was pretty good with the glove at the corners of the outfield, but was (for the lack of a better term) useless everywhere else. He routinely made mistakes on the basepaths by either getting picked off, getting caught in rundowns, or just plain getting caught stealing. While in the batter's box you could predict when he'd square up to bunt (ALL THE TIME), and would see almost no extra base power. Anderson hit exactly like Adam Everett........from a corner outfield spot. To make matters worse, he was occasionally (which is probably too much) tabbed to lead off games because of his speed. His inability to even get on base made this a fruitless endeavor. Trading him to the Royals instantly made the Tigers a better hitting ballclub (though you couldn't tell, unfortunately), and simutaneously sabotaged KC.

Left field has been a pretty gaping hole in Detroit this season. A LF rotation of Josh Anderson, Marcus Thames, and Ryan Raburn is not going to inspire a ton of confidence. Anderson does nothing with the bat, Thames hits well but doesn't amaze anyone with his glovework, and Ryan Raburn may or may not be a AAAA player with questionable D. For all of the love that Marcus Thames gets for having sheer brute strength, Ryan Raburn has actually outslugged the big man this season *and* put up a much higher OBP (.335, but beggars can't be choosers) in almost the same amount of plate appearances. The pitchers will suffer with either of them out there, but Raburn has been surprisingly steady with the stick in his limited playing time.

Who am I leaving out? Placido Polanco. Polanco is good for *amazing* defense at the keystone, and a yearly batting average that eclipses .300. He's excelled in the former, and hasn't delivered in the latter. If the season ended today, Placido would have his lowest batting average since 1999 (NINETY NINE). When Polanco's average suffers, his OBP definitely suffers (Placido will never be confused for Adam Dunn), Granderson isn't scoring from his extra base hits, and Miguel Cabrera isn't hitting with guys on base.

Add all of this together and you get a mighty disappointing part to an otherwise sparkling season. For the entire season so far, the only player who has been consistently excellent is Miguel Cabrera. Inge has tailed off to have an OPS+ under 100, Grandy is just over 100, and Ryan Raburn and Marcus Thames make up 400+ PAs of a 108 OPS +. That is three players in the lineup with an OPS that is around or above league average. Three. Minnesota has four regulars with an OPS+ over 125, and the White Sox have a more spread out six players with an OPS+ over 100. The infusion of rookie catcher Alex Avila will most likely bolster the hitting stats from the catcher spot, but 1B/DH/LF Aubrey Huff doesn't seem to really improve what the Tigers have already been trotting out at DH. What all of this leaves you with is Miguel Cabrera and some guys. That's not a very good bet to back up a pitching staff that is beginning to show signs of regression.

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