Friday, May 2, 2008

Weekend Pitching Matchups

Friday- Armando Galarraga vs. Livan Hernandez

Despite becoming somewhat of a joke in the last few years, Hernandez had actually pitched pretty well in his first three starts of the season for the Twins. He's always been known to eat up innings, and he's doing more of that this year as five of his six starts have been for six or more innings. In his last three starts, however, the wheels have started to come off. His ERA has ballooned to 5.05 (up from 2.57), he's not striking many out, and his groundball/flyball rate is getting worse. Facing the rolling Tigers offense may not be the cure for what ails him.

Galarraga, on the other hand, has not allowed more than three hits in any of his three starts. His strikeout numbers won't wow anyone, but he doesn't walk a ton either. The Twins are not a team with a ton of punch in the lineup, so if Armando keeps the ball over the plate and doesn't beat himself with walks, he should be in good shape.

Saturday- Justin Verlander vs. Scott Baker

Like Hernandez, Scott Baker has shown that he's able to go deep into a game as well. He hasn't been amazing, but he's been consistent. Unfortunately, when he's consistent, it's mediocre. He's had one nice outing, but other than that it's been four starts of three runs or more. One of those three run games was an April 15th start against the Tigers. There wasn't a whole lot of offense in that game, but Baker did show one weakness, and that was the longball. He's been taken deep six times this season (three in that game against Detroit). His strikeout numbers are good, with three games of seven or more, and he doesn't walk many. All this means is that the ball will be there, and the Tigers aren't slumping like they were before.

This doesn't need to really be said, but I'm going to say it anyway. Justin Verlander has been absolutely atrocious so far. In his six starts he's allowed at least four runs five times, and has only gone past the 7th inning once. This all adds up to a 6.50 ERA, a WHIP that would make Daniel Cabrera blush (1.47), and a strikeout to walk ratio that is almost 1:1. Simply put, he needs to stop walking so many batters (consistently) and start throwing strikes. And one other thing that might help is not allowing a HR per game (he's got at least one in five starts)

Sunday- Kenny Rogers vs. Boof Bonser

Bonser's season so far has reminded Minnesota fans why they had hope for him after the 2006 campaign. He's brought his WHIP back down to around 1.22 (it was 1.57 last year), and his ERA is sitting at 3.75. The only start where he didn't go at least six innings was a rough tango with the Tampa Bay Rays (don't worry, I almost typed it wrong) where he got roughed up for six runs in four innings. With the pace he's on, he'll walk about 20-25 less batters this season, and his strikeout rate is the same as it has been. As another feather in his cap, he hasn't been overly susceptible to the home run so far either. Boof could prove to be Detroit's toughest task of the weekend.

Imagine everything I said about Justin Verlander, but worse. With the way Kenny is pitching (pretty well below league average), he may finally be breaking down. In his best moments this year, he's only been able to muster six innings with a couple of earned runs allowed. For some icing on the cake, he's also walked more batters (19) than he's struck out (13). His last start against the Yankees was encouraging, but be prepared for this one to get ugly.

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