Pitching has completely carried the Tigers in 2009.
Why would I start a post about hitting with a glowing statement about the pitching staff? That would be because the Motown offense hasn't failed to disappoint at every single turn. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, it seems that every Tiger has had a down year in some way offensively. Some would argue that the other player who was worth anything in the first half for the Tigers would be Brandon Inge. For the most part they would be right.
Brandon lit the world on fire in April, and actually posted an OPS higher than Miguel Cabrera (over 1.1!!). In addition to surprising with a top 3 bat for his position, Inge provided his trademark excellent defense. All of this made for one of the most valuable 3rd baseman in the entire American League. Unfortunately for Inge, the baseball season isn't 81 games. After the All Star Break he's posted an OPS of .604 and .514 in July and August respectively. He was on track to post a career year (pretty easily), but seems to have been derailed by a couple of faulty knees (and an outright refusal to go on the DL).
There has been nothing to derail Miguel Cabrera. After what some would call a sub-par debut in Detroit in 2008, 2009 has been nothing but roses for Miguel. He's resumed the roll he was on while on the Marlins, and is tearing the cover off the ball. Statistically, Cabrera has been the 3rd best hitter in the AL this season, behind only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis. Putting up his best OBP since 2006, Cabrera is on pace to easily eclipse the palty (for him) 56 walks he drew last season. Some have nitpicked that Cabrera hasn't come through in enough clutch situations this year, but browse the baseball-reference.com "clutch stats" and tell me how terrible he is. I've got all day.
Curtis Granderson was supposed to be a leadoff hitter to rival Grady Sizemore, and he is. Wait, how is that disappointing? The problem lies in the fact that both are having *very* down years. Don't get me wrong, Curtis hasn't been a terrible player this season. But when you see a guy post a couple years consecutively of OPS+ above 125 along with great defense, you expect him to continue being a quasi-superstar into his prime (and Curtis is in his prime). What Tigers fans have been treated to is a leadoff hitter who has improved his HR stroke (to the tune of a career high 24 so far this season), yet has a lower slugging percentage than either of the last two years. His OBP has dropped by almost 30 points despite walking at about the same rate as last season, and his batting average is beginning to reach Brandon Inge type levels. Most of this is due to Curtis being a horror against lefties this season (hello there .500 OPS). After seeing Granderson do decently well against southpaws in 2008 (.700 OPS), most of this can probably be attributed to bad luck by way of an abnormally low batting average on balls in play. There's no reason to think that Curtis won't go back to the exceptional hitting CF that we all know and love, but the luck just hasn't been there so far.
Depending upon guys like Granderson and Cabrera is perfectly fine, because they're guys that are in their prime. When you depend on veterans who are in their early to mid thirties, you can run into problems like the Tigers have in 2009. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen looked every bit as washed up in the first half of the season as David Ortiz, but with a fraction of the media coverage. Guillen was one of the worst regulars in all of major league baseball before he went on the DL (mercifully) with a shoulder ailment, and Ordonez performed so terribly that he was legitimately platooned with rookie Clete Thomas. Magglio was so bad in the first half that most were advocating his outright release (not only because of the bad hitting, but because of a plate appearance clause in his contract). Both have experienced a nice resurgence in the second half, but Tigers fans are left wondering which players they're going to get next season. If they hadn't bounced back in the second half.........they'd be hitting like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.
Both Laird and Everett were brought in for their gloves, and much wasn't thought of the offensive prowess of either. But what the Tigers got (offensively) was more ghastly than could've been imagined. There are two hitters in the AL this season that had 300 plate appearances who have been worse than Adam Everett with the bat. Those two hitters? Luminary AL Central SS Yuniesky Betancourt (whom some have called possibly the worst regular in all of baseball), and disappointing Rays catcher Dioner Navarro. Where is Laird on this dubious list? He's the 8th *worst* hitter in the AL. Whether Detroit expected this kind of production is unknown, though he actually put up a worse season a couple of years back for Texas. Both of these players have an excuse because they both play passsable (Everett) and amazing (Laird) defense at premium defensive positions.
Josh Anderson was acquired in Spring Training to give the Tigers a boost in outfield defense from the corners, and to give them a legit threat on the basepaths. He was pretty good with the glove at the corners of the outfield, but was (for the lack of a better term) useless everywhere else. He routinely made mistakes on the basepaths by either getting picked off, getting caught in rundowns, or just plain getting caught stealing. While in the batter's box you could predict when he'd square up to bunt (ALL THE TIME), and would see almost no extra base power. Anderson hit exactly like Adam Everett........from a corner outfield spot. To make matters worse, he was occasionally (which is probably too much) tabbed to lead off games because of his speed. His inability to even get on base made this a fruitless endeavor. Trading him to the Royals instantly made the Tigers a better hitting ballclub (though you couldn't tell, unfortunately), and simutaneously sabotaged KC.
Left field has been a pretty gaping hole in Detroit this season. A LF rotation of Josh Anderson, Marcus Thames, and Ryan Raburn is not going to inspire a ton of confidence. Anderson does nothing with the bat, Thames hits well but doesn't amaze anyone with his glovework, and Ryan Raburn may or may not be a AAAA player with questionable D. For all of the love that Marcus Thames gets for having sheer brute strength, Ryan Raburn has actually outslugged the big man this season *and* put up a much higher OBP (.335, but beggars can't be choosers) in almost the same amount of plate appearances. The pitchers will suffer with either of them out there, but Raburn has been surprisingly steady with the stick in his limited playing time.
Who am I leaving out? Placido Polanco. Polanco is good for *amazing* defense at the keystone, and a yearly batting average that eclipses .300. He's excelled in the former, and hasn't delivered in the latter. If the season ended today, Placido would have his lowest batting average since 1999 (NINETY NINE). When Polanco's average suffers, his OBP definitely suffers (Placido will never be confused for Adam Dunn), Granderson isn't scoring from his extra base hits, and Miguel Cabrera isn't hitting with guys on base.
Add all of this together and you get a mighty disappointing part to an otherwise sparkling season. For the entire season so far, the only player who has been consistently excellent is Miguel Cabrera. Inge has tailed off to have an OPS+ under 100, Grandy is just over 100, and Ryan Raburn and Marcus Thames make up 400+ PAs of a 108 OPS +. That is three players in the lineup with an OPS that is around or above league average. Three. Minnesota has four regulars with an OPS+ over 125, and the White Sox have a more spread out six players with an OPS+ over 100. The infusion of rookie catcher Alex Avila will most likely bolster the hitting stats from the catcher spot, but 1B/DH/LF Aubrey Huff doesn't seem to really improve what the Tigers have already been trotting out at DH. What all of this leaves you with is Miguel Cabrera and some guys. That's not a very good bet to back up a pitching staff that is beginning to show signs of regression.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Sunday, August 23, 2009
The 2009 Detroit Tigers: The Starters
The 2009 Detroit Tigers have inspired a lot of hope in Tigers fans this year. What's not to love here? I mean, they've had excellent starting pitching, a closer who's only blown one save this season, one of the better hitters in the American League, great defense to assist the pitching, and a good mix of veterans and youngsters. With all of that, you might think that it's a proper mixture for a 1st place team. If you thought that, you'd be right.
But it's all a mirage.
The starting pitching has been lauded by pundits and fans so far this season on the backs of phenomenal performances from Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and at times Rick Porcello. But when you dig deeper you see that Verlander is the only pitcher of the bunch that has been truly dominant. Verlander has managed to put up an FIP under 3.00, but has been routinely hurt by the defense which is why his ERA isn't as good as someone like Jackson or Jarrod Washburn. The reason his FIP is so solid is because he's striking out the most batters in the AL, limiting his walks (under 3 per 9 innings), and keeping the longball in check. Justin has been an ace in every sense of the term this season, and has been a huge lift for Detroit the whole year (and I'll eat a plate full of crow for doubting him in Spring Training).
On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been severely overrated this season because of his top 5 AL ERA. Now do not get me wrong (don't do it!), I've got nothing but love for Edwin. However, I just think that what he is and what people think he is are two very different things. His FIP is almost 120 points higher than his ERA, and that is completely huge. He's brought his K rate back up to around 7 per 9 innings, and has shaved almost 1.5 BB/9 IP off of his career average (that's damn good improvement). His ERA has trended backwards in every month since the start of the season, and his August ERA is very close to what his season FIP is (around 4). But like I said, I'm completely fine with what Jackson is at this point (he is young enough that he could improve, though), and that is a guy that will more often than not give you a quality start and maybe more. This is all especially great because he's young, and was acquired for basically nothing (Matt Joyce was going to have a hard time finding playing time on the current Tigers team).
The rookie phenom Rick Porcello has had a very good season so far..........for a 20 year old. He's sporting an ERA that is north of 4 by a shade, but he's also doing that with a very Armando Galarraga-like FIP over 5. Frederick does help his luck by getting a metric ton worth of groundballs (and has 21 double plays turned as a result). What Fred does to hurt himself is walk 3 batters per 9 innings, and allow a bunch of HRs (18 in just over 115 innings, ouch). Now walking 3/9 IP would be ok if you were striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP like Justin Verlander (shit, it's not even that bad for someone like Edwin Jackson). But when you're a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (hey only 5 per 9 IP), you're getting a good amount of runners on the basepaths with a mix of walks and hits simply because you allow so many balls in play. Then when you factor the HRs in, it just gets really really ugly (thus, the FIP over 5). BUT, Fred is only 20 years old and will have a full year of big league experience under his belt for next season. If he can tighten up his command on his breaking pitches, and shave the walks, he will be a very dominant starter for a very long time. Just not now.
Last year was a very good year for Armando Galarraga, and he was on top of the world (or at the very least, on top of Detroit). His ERA wasn't amazing at 3.73. But in a rotation as awful as the 2008 Tigers, it was sterling. Armando may as well be the basis for this entire post, because his last season is what this season has been, a mirage. He was AMAZINGLY lucky with a .247 Batting Average on Balls in Play (which was among the league leaders), but peripherals that just didn't match or add up. He struck out just over 6 batters per 9 IP, and walked 3 per 9 IP, and allowed almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings (also terrible). What does this add up to? An FIP that's darn near 5. What is Armando's ERA this year, you ask? Why it's right around 5 (as is his FIP, just like last year). Galarraga has actually taken a small step back with his peripherals this year, and has been almost completely terrible all season. Karma can be a cruel thing. It's a far cry from the #2 starter that most moronic sports talk radio callers thought he would be, but this is what he is. He is a back end starter.
The 5th and final spot has been occupied by an unholy combination of Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner, Jarrod Washburn, Alfredo Figaro, Eddie Bonine, and Jeremy Bonderman. None of these starters has been any amount of good (which is disappointing for Bonderman, but to be expected from Washburn). Figaro and Bonine are just farmhands, and not a lot was expected from them. Willis showed a small glimpse of promise with a strong outing against the Texas Rangers early on in the season, but imploded to look like the Dontrelle Willis of 2008. Zach Miner has been in and out of the rotation and bullpen, and has looked terrible in both roles. Take Rick Porcello's walk and strikeout rates from this season, and apply them to a pitcher in his mid 30s and you have Jarrod Washburn. The problem with Washburn is he isn't a groundballer like Porcello, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play was at Armando Galarraga levels from 2008. Add to that the fact that the outfield defense in Seattle is one of the best in all of baseball, and you had a recipe for severe regression (Detroit's simply isn't even close). While Jarrod probably won't be quite as bad as he has been thus far for the Tigers, you probably shouldn't expect it to be a *lot* better. Washburn is absolutely not the 2.50-2.70 ERA that some fans thought the Tigers were trading for (and I pray to god the front office didn't think that's what they were getting in exchange for Robles and French).
What is it that you get after you add all of this together? An ace, a guy who'll give you quality start almost every time out (and maybe more), a 20 year old who may be a year or two away from really coming into his own and looks overmatched more often than not, and a couple of pitcher with FIPs approaching 5 (the very definition of back end starters). It's a far cry from what some were (and are) saying was a rotation that could go toe to toe with any in the AL in the playoffs. I believe that Verlander could stand toe to toe with any starter in baseball, and that Edwin Jackson would give the Tigers a shot to win against most teams #2 starter. But after that, you're working with a bunch of guys that are pitching like back of the rotation starters and I don't believe that's enough to get you by in the playoffs.
Then again, Josh Fogg lit it up in a couple of starts in the 2007 postseason (until the World Series, ack). So you never know.
But it's all a mirage.
The starting pitching has been lauded by pundits and fans so far this season on the backs of phenomenal performances from Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and at times Rick Porcello. But when you dig deeper you see that Verlander is the only pitcher of the bunch that has been truly dominant. Verlander has managed to put up an FIP under 3.00, but has been routinely hurt by the defense which is why his ERA isn't as good as someone like Jackson or Jarrod Washburn. The reason his FIP is so solid is because he's striking out the most batters in the AL, limiting his walks (under 3 per 9 innings), and keeping the longball in check. Justin has been an ace in every sense of the term this season, and has been a huge lift for Detroit the whole year (and I'll eat a plate full of crow for doubting him in Spring Training).
On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been severely overrated this season because of his top 5 AL ERA. Now do not get me wrong (don't do it!), I've got nothing but love for Edwin. However, I just think that what he is and what people think he is are two very different things. His FIP is almost 120 points higher than his ERA, and that is completely huge. He's brought his K rate back up to around 7 per 9 innings, and has shaved almost 1.5 BB/9 IP off of his career average (that's damn good improvement). His ERA has trended backwards in every month since the start of the season, and his August ERA is very close to what his season FIP is (around 4). But like I said, I'm completely fine with what Jackson is at this point (he is young enough that he could improve, though), and that is a guy that will more often than not give you a quality start and maybe more. This is all especially great because he's young, and was acquired for basically nothing (Matt Joyce was going to have a hard time finding playing time on the current Tigers team).
The rookie phenom Rick Porcello has had a very good season so far..........for a 20 year old. He's sporting an ERA that is north of 4 by a shade, but he's also doing that with a very Armando Galarraga-like FIP over 5. Frederick does help his luck by getting a metric ton worth of groundballs (and has 21 double plays turned as a result). What Fred does to hurt himself is walk 3 batters per 9 innings, and allow a bunch of HRs (18 in just over 115 innings, ouch). Now walking 3/9 IP would be ok if you were striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP like Justin Verlander (shit, it's not even that bad for someone like Edwin Jackson). But when you're a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (hey only 5 per 9 IP), you're getting a good amount of runners on the basepaths with a mix of walks and hits simply because you allow so many balls in play. Then when you factor the HRs in, it just gets really really ugly (thus, the FIP over 5). BUT, Fred is only 20 years old and will have a full year of big league experience under his belt for next season. If he can tighten up his command on his breaking pitches, and shave the walks, he will be a very dominant starter for a very long time. Just not now.
Last year was a very good year for Armando Galarraga, and he was on top of the world (or at the very least, on top of Detroit). His ERA wasn't amazing at 3.73. But in a rotation as awful as the 2008 Tigers, it was sterling. Armando may as well be the basis for this entire post, because his last season is what this season has been, a mirage. He was AMAZINGLY lucky with a .247 Batting Average on Balls in Play (which was among the league leaders), but peripherals that just didn't match or add up. He struck out just over 6 batters per 9 IP, and walked 3 per 9 IP, and allowed almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings (also terrible). What does this add up to? An FIP that's darn near 5. What is Armando's ERA this year, you ask? Why it's right around 5 (as is his FIP, just like last year). Galarraga has actually taken a small step back with his peripherals this year, and has been almost completely terrible all season. Karma can be a cruel thing. It's a far cry from the #2 starter that most moronic sports talk radio callers thought he would be, but this is what he is. He is a back end starter.
The 5th and final spot has been occupied by an unholy combination of Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner, Jarrod Washburn, Alfredo Figaro, Eddie Bonine, and Jeremy Bonderman. None of these starters has been any amount of good (which is disappointing for Bonderman, but to be expected from Washburn). Figaro and Bonine are just farmhands, and not a lot was expected from them. Willis showed a small glimpse of promise with a strong outing against the Texas Rangers early on in the season, but imploded to look like the Dontrelle Willis of 2008. Zach Miner has been in and out of the rotation and bullpen, and has looked terrible in both roles. Take Rick Porcello's walk and strikeout rates from this season, and apply them to a pitcher in his mid 30s and you have Jarrod Washburn. The problem with Washburn is he isn't a groundballer like Porcello, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play was at Armando Galarraga levels from 2008. Add to that the fact that the outfield defense in Seattle is one of the best in all of baseball, and you had a recipe for severe regression (Detroit's simply isn't even close). While Jarrod probably won't be quite as bad as he has been thus far for the Tigers, you probably shouldn't expect it to be a *lot* better. Washburn is absolutely not the 2.50-2.70 ERA that some fans thought the Tigers were trading for (and I pray to god the front office didn't think that's what they were getting in exchange for Robles and French).
What is it that you get after you add all of this together? An ace, a guy who'll give you quality start almost every time out (and maybe more), a 20 year old who may be a year or two away from really coming into his own and looks overmatched more often than not, and a couple of pitcher with FIPs approaching 5 (the very definition of back end starters). It's a far cry from what some were (and are) saying was a rotation that could go toe to toe with any in the AL in the playoffs. I believe that Verlander could stand toe to toe with any starter in baseball, and that Edwin Jackson would give the Tigers a shot to win against most teams #2 starter. But after that, you're working with a bunch of guys that are pitching like back of the rotation starters and I don't believe that's enough to get you by in the playoffs.
Then again, Josh Fogg lit it up in a couple of starts in the 2007 postseason (until the World Series, ack). So you never know.
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