Kyle Lohse had to wait until almost the end of spring training to get signed by anyone. There weren't any restrictions in place for him, it's just that no one wanted to pay him the "Gil Meche money" he was seeking.
Right now any teams that were courting him probably aren't overly disappointed with their decision. That's not to say that some of them shouldn't be.
In 16 starts (94.1 innings) Lohse is 9-2, with a respectable 3.63 ERA. He's actually been St. Louis' 2nd best starter behind converted reliever Adam Wainright. But when you look just underneath the surface, Lohse isn't exactly a world-beater. His .277 BAbip isn't amazing, but it's still about 30 points lower than his career average (and this is a 29 year old). The strikeout rate has absolutely fallen off the table as he's down to little more than 4 K/9 (career 5.6 K/9). Having said that, he's helping himself out with only 2.3 BB/9 (down from 2.8 for his career). Staying away from the longball has also been quite a help. His HR rate is down from a little over 1 per 9 to a thin .6 HR/9.
Over his last 7 starts, Lohse has been nothing short of phenomenal only allowing 10 earned runs over that span. The more shocking thing is that he's only walked SEVEN in those starts as a whole. The good news for Tigers fans is that there were only 20 Ks in those seven games, so the ball will be around the plate (though that hasn't been good news for the 2008 Tigers for the most part).
With all of that positive must come a negative, right? Yes, it really does. Kyle Lohse has had a horrendous career against the Detroit Tigers. In a little over 100 IP, he sports an OPS against of .849 and an atrocious 5.74 ERA. In those innings he's allowed 17 HR and struggled to a 7-6 record against the boys from Detroit. The decent news for him is that half of his innings against the Tigers have come in Comerica (where the game is played tonight), and his stats are a tad bit more respectable there. The ERA drops a little over a full point, and only 6 of those 17 HRs came in Detroit.
Triumphant or not, Kyle Lohse returns tonight!
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The State of the Tigers
The Hitters: May was a down month for the Detroit Offense. Their team OPS dropped by almost .100 points, they hit nine less home runs, and their walks fell off the face of the Earth (122 in April, 67 in May)
Curtis Granderson - After a blazing hot start in his first six games back from the DL, Granderson hit a wall. Everyone knew that he wouldn't keep up a 1.49 OPS, but a .585 OPS was absolutely out of the question. His BAbip was .266, but that's nothing that's absolutely crippling. The crippling thing is that he only had six extra base hits all month, and actually struck out more than he hit (25 to 24).
Placido Polanco - Placido looked much more like himself in May. He doubled his hit total, while only taking four walks in the month. The ten doubles helped get his May slugging to .425 (compared to .342 in April).
Gary Sheffield - A .355 OBP is nothing to scoff at for a major league ballplayer. But if you're a #3 hitter on a ballclub that also sports Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez, you should probably sport a better slugging pct. than a paltry .354. Age and injuries may have finally broken Sheffield down completely.
Magglio Ordonez - Outside of Detroit (and very possibly even in Detroit), Maggs went completely under the radar in May. He put up an excellent .940 OPS, and even though he took half the walks that he did in April, his .381 BAbip made that a non-issue. He just keeps rollin'.
Carlos Guillen - After carrying the Tigers for most of April, Carlos regressed quite a bit in May. His OPS dropped from .938 in April to a below-league average .721 in May. He's beginning to show that his years of hitting more than 20 HRs in a year may be behind him with only five in the first two months.
Miguel Cabrera - I've spent quite a good portion of this young season defending Miguel, and it's beginning to get harder. You can't knock the guy for being inconsistent as far as his OPS goes, it's just that people would like it to be about .150 points higher. They don't pay the man the way they do for an above average OPS. Ten extra base hits a month just won't do the job.
Edgar Renteria - E6 had a horrible month of May. He had a decent, if only around average, April. But that fell completely off and he couldn't even manage to break a .300 OBP or slugging pct. One bad month doesn't make a player, but with Edgar's best years behind him and average defense at the best, his trade is going to look worse and worse as time passes.
Brandon Inge - Brandon only managed to get around 50 ABs, and he really didn't make them count. He put up an unimaginable .495 OPS and struck out twice as many times as he hit. And after that excellent showing of patience he had in April, he only walked once in May. It's hard to justify playing someone for their glove when they're putting up worse numbers offensively than a slumping Edgar Renteria.
Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames - Joyce looked phenomenal until major league pitchers learned to just give him the Pedro Cerrano treatment and throw him breaking balls. After he was sent down, it seemed as though Marcus Thames would see a big increase in ABs. This wasn't really the case, as he only had four more plate appearances in May than April. He made the most of those plate appearances though, rocking a .911 OPS. Two of his three home runs came in one game, but with a season as bad as this one, you take the good where you can.
The Starters: April was a horrible, horrible time to be a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. For whatever reason, May wasn't a whole lot better (oh wait, the reason is they suck).
Justin Verlander - While Verlander wasn't amazing in May, he was a hell of a lot better than April. He allowed more hits, but reduced his walks, and halved his runs allowed. The most odd thing about Verlander's May was that his BAbip went up by almost 40 points and yet his opponent's OPS dropped by .100. With his BAbip returning to normal and him getting better luck, this may be the start of something positive.
Jeremy Bonderman - Despite pitching six less innings in May, Bonderman walked 10 less, struck out 3 more, and allowed 3 less hits. Through all that, his ERA actually went up by 1.05. Bad luck was certainly part of it, and that's really nothing new for Jeremy.
Kenny Rogers - Three of Kenny's five starts in May were quality ones, but the other two were nothing to write home about. He didn't let the hits hurt too much, and his walks weren't too much of a problem either. Unless he gets injured, Rogers will continue to be very feast or famine.
Nate Robertson - You can count on two things. The sun will rise, and Nate Robertson will give up four runs in a start. Nine of his eleven starts have resulted in four earned runs or more. The positive for Nate in May was that lowered his ERA from 6.91. A May ERA of 5.15 isn't very pleasant though. He had one more start than in April, and allowed ten more hits and had four less strikeouts. The five home runs were kind of unsettling, and Nate is showing us all that 2006 was a nice fluke.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train was on the DL for much of May, and the Tigers didn't miss him at all. Sad but true. The fact that he just threw his first strikeouts of the season only after he'd walked eleven should tell you all you need to know about how his pitching has been.
Armando Galarraga - Galarraga has performed far better than anyone could've hoped, sporting the only ERA+ north of 100 (league average) on the staff. Having said that, his May was more along the lines of what people expected as his ERA shifted to 4.55. Basically multiply all of his April stats by three (other than IP), and you've got his May performance. Expect the regression to continue.
The Relievers: While the beginning of the season made it look like the Detroit bullpen was going to be some unlikely bright spot. Unfortunately regression has set in (shocker there), and they've turned into the house of horrors that everyone suspected they would be.
Casey Fossum - Fossum is absolutely terrible. Don't let anyone try to sway you into thinking any differently. At 29, he's not going to "figure" anything out as far as his terrible stuff. People can gander at the pretty AAA stats all they like, but a look at his career MLB stats will bring tears to your eyes (the despair kind).
Aquilino Lopez - Aside from one season that he pitched 70+ innings with the Blue Jays, he's a 33 year old reliever who hasn't ever really been amazing. He's been one of the better Detroit relievers this season, but will not be a guy who can be counted on to shut down an opposing team in any situation. He'll be a decent bullpen piece if he doesn't regress too hard.
Freddy Dolsi - Don't let the good ERA (1.54) fool you. He's only pitched 11 innings, and in those innings he's walked seven batters and only struck out 6. He gets hit around a good amount, to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP (sample size, I know).
Clay Rapada - A guy who's used as a lefty specialist, but awkwardly enough has a much higher batting average against with lefties (.273 against lefties, .200 against righties). Only 10 innings pitched, but he's been up and down.
Denny Bautista - Bautista is a nice example of people falling in love with a quick fastball. Yes it's fast, and his slider isn't too shabby either. Problem is, he's the same pitcher that he was in KC and Colorado. He doesn't strike out as many as his stuff would indicate, he walks too many batters (13 BB in 13 IP), and for whatever reason he's very hittable (12 H in 13 IP). It's only 13 innings, but a 1.875 WHIP is pretty eye-popping.
Bobby Seay - The great year that Bobby had last year in his age 29 season may have given some people unrealistic expectations. His stuff isn't overpowering, and he's been hit around pretty well so far. He's only walked eight in 17 innings, so I guess that's something.
Zach Miner - Miner has already allowed more earned runs in 31 innings than he had all of last season (53 innings). Mario and Rod will tell you all day that his stuff is excellent, but he hasn't translated that to a whole lot of success so far. He would probably do himself a favor if he had a bigger gap in his walks and strikeouts (18 BBs to 19 Ks).
Todd Jones - Walks have been more of a problem for Todd Jones than in recent years (he's on pace to walk 30% more batters than last year). Add in the fact that he still gets hit around pretty well, and this year has been pretty typical Todd Jones. He's already allowed three home runs, which is as many as he allowed all last season
The return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya seems like it would be a shot in the arm for this horrible crew. Though Tigers fans would probably do themselves well to temper their excitement until they actually make it up to the bigs again.
Overall, Tigers fans are going to continue to hope for what they have all season. For the team to not only play up to expectations, but anywhere near shouting distance of them.
Curtis Granderson - After a blazing hot start in his first six games back from the DL, Granderson hit a wall. Everyone knew that he wouldn't keep up a 1.49 OPS, but a .585 OPS was absolutely out of the question. His BAbip was .266, but that's nothing that's absolutely crippling. The crippling thing is that he only had six extra base hits all month, and actually struck out more than he hit (25 to 24).
Placido Polanco - Placido looked much more like himself in May. He doubled his hit total, while only taking four walks in the month. The ten doubles helped get his May slugging to .425 (compared to .342 in April).
Gary Sheffield - A .355 OBP is nothing to scoff at for a major league ballplayer. But if you're a #3 hitter on a ballclub that also sports Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez, you should probably sport a better slugging pct. than a paltry .354. Age and injuries may have finally broken Sheffield down completely.
Magglio Ordonez - Outside of Detroit (and very possibly even in Detroit), Maggs went completely under the radar in May. He put up an excellent .940 OPS, and even though he took half the walks that he did in April, his .381 BAbip made that a non-issue. He just keeps rollin'.
Carlos Guillen - After carrying the Tigers for most of April, Carlos regressed quite a bit in May. His OPS dropped from .938 in April to a below-league average .721 in May. He's beginning to show that his years of hitting more than 20 HRs in a year may be behind him with only five in the first two months.
Miguel Cabrera - I've spent quite a good portion of this young season defending Miguel, and it's beginning to get harder. You can't knock the guy for being inconsistent as far as his OPS goes, it's just that people would like it to be about .150 points higher. They don't pay the man the way they do for an above average OPS. Ten extra base hits a month just won't do the job.
Edgar Renteria - E6 had a horrible month of May. He had a decent, if only around average, April. But that fell completely off and he couldn't even manage to break a .300 OBP or slugging pct. One bad month doesn't make a player, but with Edgar's best years behind him and average defense at the best, his trade is going to look worse and worse as time passes.
Brandon Inge - Brandon only managed to get around 50 ABs, and he really didn't make them count. He put up an unimaginable .495 OPS and struck out twice as many times as he hit. And after that excellent showing of patience he had in April, he only walked once in May. It's hard to justify playing someone for their glove when they're putting up worse numbers offensively than a slumping Edgar Renteria.
Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames - Joyce looked phenomenal until major league pitchers learned to just give him the Pedro Cerrano treatment and throw him breaking balls. After he was sent down, it seemed as though Marcus Thames would see a big increase in ABs. This wasn't really the case, as he only had four more plate appearances in May than April. He made the most of those plate appearances though, rocking a .911 OPS. Two of his three home runs came in one game, but with a season as bad as this one, you take the good where you can.
The Starters: April was a horrible, horrible time to be a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. For whatever reason, May wasn't a whole lot better (oh wait, the reason is they suck).
Justin Verlander - While Verlander wasn't amazing in May, he was a hell of a lot better than April. He allowed more hits, but reduced his walks, and halved his runs allowed. The most odd thing about Verlander's May was that his BAbip went up by almost 40 points and yet his opponent's OPS dropped by .100. With his BAbip returning to normal and him getting better luck, this may be the start of something positive.
Jeremy Bonderman - Despite pitching six less innings in May, Bonderman walked 10 less, struck out 3 more, and allowed 3 less hits. Through all that, his ERA actually went up by 1.05. Bad luck was certainly part of it, and that's really nothing new for Jeremy.
Kenny Rogers - Three of Kenny's five starts in May were quality ones, but the other two were nothing to write home about. He didn't let the hits hurt too much, and his walks weren't too much of a problem either. Unless he gets injured, Rogers will continue to be very feast or famine.
Nate Robertson - You can count on two things. The sun will rise, and Nate Robertson will give up four runs in a start. Nine of his eleven starts have resulted in four earned runs or more. The positive for Nate in May was that lowered his ERA from 6.91. A May ERA of 5.15 isn't very pleasant though. He had one more start than in April, and allowed ten more hits and had four less strikeouts. The five home runs were kind of unsettling, and Nate is showing us all that 2006 was a nice fluke.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train was on the DL for much of May, and the Tigers didn't miss him at all. Sad but true. The fact that he just threw his first strikeouts of the season only after he'd walked eleven should tell you all you need to know about how his pitching has been.
Armando Galarraga - Galarraga has performed far better than anyone could've hoped, sporting the only ERA+ north of 100 (league average) on the staff. Having said that, his May was more along the lines of what people expected as his ERA shifted to 4.55. Basically multiply all of his April stats by three (other than IP), and you've got his May performance. Expect the regression to continue.
The Relievers: While the beginning of the season made it look like the Detroit bullpen was going to be some unlikely bright spot. Unfortunately regression has set in (shocker there), and they've turned into the house of horrors that everyone suspected they would be.
Casey Fossum - Fossum is absolutely terrible. Don't let anyone try to sway you into thinking any differently. At 29, he's not going to "figure" anything out as far as his terrible stuff. People can gander at the pretty AAA stats all they like, but a look at his career MLB stats will bring tears to your eyes (the despair kind).
Aquilino Lopez - Aside from one season that he pitched 70+ innings with the Blue Jays, he's a 33 year old reliever who hasn't ever really been amazing. He's been one of the better Detroit relievers this season, but will not be a guy who can be counted on to shut down an opposing team in any situation. He'll be a decent bullpen piece if he doesn't regress too hard.
Freddy Dolsi - Don't let the good ERA (1.54) fool you. He's only pitched 11 innings, and in those innings he's walked seven batters and only struck out 6. He gets hit around a good amount, to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP (sample size, I know).
Clay Rapada - A guy who's used as a lefty specialist, but awkwardly enough has a much higher batting average against with lefties (.273 against lefties, .200 against righties). Only 10 innings pitched, but he's been up and down.
Denny Bautista - Bautista is a nice example of people falling in love with a quick fastball. Yes it's fast, and his slider isn't too shabby either. Problem is, he's the same pitcher that he was in KC and Colorado. He doesn't strike out as many as his stuff would indicate, he walks too many batters (13 BB in 13 IP), and for whatever reason he's very hittable (12 H in 13 IP). It's only 13 innings, but a 1.875 WHIP is pretty eye-popping.
Bobby Seay - The great year that Bobby had last year in his age 29 season may have given some people unrealistic expectations. His stuff isn't overpowering, and he's been hit around pretty well so far. He's only walked eight in 17 innings, so I guess that's something.
Zach Miner - Miner has already allowed more earned runs in 31 innings than he had all of last season (53 innings). Mario and Rod will tell you all day that his stuff is excellent, but he hasn't translated that to a whole lot of success so far. He would probably do himself a favor if he had a bigger gap in his walks and strikeouts (18 BBs to 19 Ks).
Todd Jones - Walks have been more of a problem for Todd Jones than in recent years (he's on pace to walk 30% more batters than last year). Add in the fact that he still gets hit around pretty well, and this year has been pretty typical Todd Jones. He's already allowed three home runs, which is as many as he allowed all last season
The return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya seems like it would be a shot in the arm for this horrible crew. Though Tigers fans would probably do themselves well to temper their excitement until they actually make it up to the bigs again.
Overall, Tigers fans are going to continue to hope for what they have all season. For the team to not only play up to expectations, but anywhere near shouting distance of them.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)