Pitching has completely carried the Tigers in 2009.
Why would I start a post about hitting with a glowing statement about the pitching staff? That would be because the Motown offense hasn't failed to disappoint at every single turn. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, it seems that every Tiger has had a down year in some way offensively. Some would argue that the other player who was worth anything in the first half for the Tigers would be Brandon Inge. For the most part they would be right.
Brandon lit the world on fire in April, and actually posted an OPS higher than Miguel Cabrera (over 1.1!!). In addition to surprising with a top 3 bat for his position, Inge provided his trademark excellent defense. All of this made for one of the most valuable 3rd baseman in the entire American League. Unfortunately for Inge, the baseball season isn't 81 games. After the All Star Break he's posted an OPS of .604 and .514 in July and August respectively. He was on track to post a career year (pretty easily), but seems to have been derailed by a couple of faulty knees (and an outright refusal to go on the DL).
There has been nothing to derail Miguel Cabrera. After what some would call a sub-par debut in Detroit in 2008, 2009 has been nothing but roses for Miguel. He's resumed the roll he was on while on the Marlins, and is tearing the cover off the ball. Statistically, Cabrera has been the 3rd best hitter in the AL this season, behind only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis. Putting up his best OBP since 2006, Cabrera is on pace to easily eclipse the palty (for him) 56 walks he drew last season. Some have nitpicked that Cabrera hasn't come through in enough clutch situations this year, but browse the baseball-reference.com "clutch stats" and tell me how terrible he is. I've got all day.
Curtis Granderson was supposed to be a leadoff hitter to rival Grady Sizemore, and he is. Wait, how is that disappointing? The problem lies in the fact that both are having *very* down years. Don't get me wrong, Curtis hasn't been a terrible player this season. But when you see a guy post a couple years consecutively of OPS+ above 125 along with great defense, you expect him to continue being a quasi-superstar into his prime (and Curtis is in his prime). What Tigers fans have been treated to is a leadoff hitter who has improved his HR stroke (to the tune of a career high 24 so far this season), yet has a lower slugging percentage than either of the last two years. His OBP has dropped by almost 30 points despite walking at about the same rate as last season, and his batting average is beginning to reach Brandon Inge type levels. Most of this is due to Curtis being a horror against lefties this season (hello there .500 OPS). After seeing Granderson do decently well against southpaws in 2008 (.700 OPS), most of this can probably be attributed to bad luck by way of an abnormally low batting average on balls in play. There's no reason to think that Curtis won't go back to the exceptional hitting CF that we all know and love, but the luck just hasn't been there so far.
Depending upon guys like Granderson and Cabrera is perfectly fine, because they're guys that are in their prime. When you depend on veterans who are in their early to mid thirties, you can run into problems like the Tigers have in 2009. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen looked every bit as washed up in the first half of the season as David Ortiz, but with a fraction of the media coverage. Guillen was one of the worst regulars in all of major league baseball before he went on the DL (mercifully) with a shoulder ailment, and Ordonez performed so terribly that he was legitimately platooned with rookie Clete Thomas. Magglio was so bad in the first half that most were advocating his outright release (not only because of the bad hitting, but because of a plate appearance clause in his contract). Both have experienced a nice resurgence in the second half, but Tigers fans are left wondering which players they're going to get next season. If they hadn't bounced back in the second half.........they'd be hitting like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.
Both Laird and Everett were brought in for their gloves, and much wasn't thought of the offensive prowess of either. But what the Tigers got (offensively) was more ghastly than could've been imagined. There are two hitters in the AL this season that had 300 plate appearances who have been worse than Adam Everett with the bat. Those two hitters? Luminary AL Central SS Yuniesky Betancourt (whom some have called possibly the worst regular in all of baseball), and disappointing Rays catcher Dioner Navarro. Where is Laird on this dubious list? He's the 8th *worst* hitter in the AL. Whether Detroit expected this kind of production is unknown, though he actually put up a worse season a couple of years back for Texas. Both of these players have an excuse because they both play passsable (Everett) and amazing (Laird) defense at premium defensive positions.
Josh Anderson was acquired in Spring Training to give the Tigers a boost in outfield defense from the corners, and to give them a legit threat on the basepaths. He was pretty good with the glove at the corners of the outfield, but was (for the lack of a better term) useless everywhere else. He routinely made mistakes on the basepaths by either getting picked off, getting caught in rundowns, or just plain getting caught stealing. While in the batter's box you could predict when he'd square up to bunt (ALL THE TIME), and would see almost no extra base power. Anderson hit exactly like Adam Everett........from a corner outfield spot. To make matters worse, he was occasionally (which is probably too much) tabbed to lead off games because of his speed. His inability to even get on base made this a fruitless endeavor. Trading him to the Royals instantly made the Tigers a better hitting ballclub (though you couldn't tell, unfortunately), and simutaneously sabotaged KC.
Left field has been a pretty gaping hole in Detroit this season. A LF rotation of Josh Anderson, Marcus Thames, and Ryan Raburn is not going to inspire a ton of confidence. Anderson does nothing with the bat, Thames hits well but doesn't amaze anyone with his glovework, and Ryan Raburn may or may not be a AAAA player with questionable D. For all of the love that Marcus Thames gets for having sheer brute strength, Ryan Raburn has actually outslugged the big man this season *and* put up a much higher OBP (.335, but beggars can't be choosers) in almost the same amount of plate appearances. The pitchers will suffer with either of them out there, but Raburn has been surprisingly steady with the stick in his limited playing time.
Who am I leaving out? Placido Polanco. Polanco is good for *amazing* defense at the keystone, and a yearly batting average that eclipses .300. He's excelled in the former, and hasn't delivered in the latter. If the season ended today, Placido would have his lowest batting average since 1999 (NINETY NINE). When Polanco's average suffers, his OBP definitely suffers (Placido will never be confused for Adam Dunn), Granderson isn't scoring from his extra base hits, and Miguel Cabrera isn't hitting with guys on base.
Add all of this together and you get a mighty disappointing part to an otherwise sparkling season. For the entire season so far, the only player who has been consistently excellent is Miguel Cabrera. Inge has tailed off to have an OPS+ under 100, Grandy is just over 100, and Ryan Raburn and Marcus Thames make up 400+ PAs of a 108 OPS +. That is three players in the lineup with an OPS that is around or above league average. Three. Minnesota has four regulars with an OPS+ over 125, and the White Sox have a more spread out six players with an OPS+ over 100. The infusion of rookie catcher Alex Avila will most likely bolster the hitting stats from the catcher spot, but 1B/DH/LF Aubrey Huff doesn't seem to really improve what the Tigers have already been trotting out at DH. What all of this leaves you with is Miguel Cabrera and some guys. That's not a very good bet to back up a pitching staff that is beginning to show signs of regression.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Sunday, August 23, 2009
The 2009 Detroit Tigers: The Starters
The 2009 Detroit Tigers have inspired a lot of hope in Tigers fans this year. What's not to love here? I mean, they've had excellent starting pitching, a closer who's only blown one save this season, one of the better hitters in the American League, great defense to assist the pitching, and a good mix of veterans and youngsters. With all of that, you might think that it's a proper mixture for a 1st place team. If you thought that, you'd be right.
But it's all a mirage.
The starting pitching has been lauded by pundits and fans so far this season on the backs of phenomenal performances from Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and at times Rick Porcello. But when you dig deeper you see that Verlander is the only pitcher of the bunch that has been truly dominant. Verlander has managed to put up an FIP under 3.00, but has been routinely hurt by the defense which is why his ERA isn't as good as someone like Jackson or Jarrod Washburn. The reason his FIP is so solid is because he's striking out the most batters in the AL, limiting his walks (under 3 per 9 innings), and keeping the longball in check. Justin has been an ace in every sense of the term this season, and has been a huge lift for Detroit the whole year (and I'll eat a plate full of crow for doubting him in Spring Training).
On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been severely overrated this season because of his top 5 AL ERA. Now do not get me wrong (don't do it!), I've got nothing but love for Edwin. However, I just think that what he is and what people think he is are two very different things. His FIP is almost 120 points higher than his ERA, and that is completely huge. He's brought his K rate back up to around 7 per 9 innings, and has shaved almost 1.5 BB/9 IP off of his career average (that's damn good improvement). His ERA has trended backwards in every month since the start of the season, and his August ERA is very close to what his season FIP is (around 4). But like I said, I'm completely fine with what Jackson is at this point (he is young enough that he could improve, though), and that is a guy that will more often than not give you a quality start and maybe more. This is all especially great because he's young, and was acquired for basically nothing (Matt Joyce was going to have a hard time finding playing time on the current Tigers team).
The rookie phenom Rick Porcello has had a very good season so far..........for a 20 year old. He's sporting an ERA that is north of 4 by a shade, but he's also doing that with a very Armando Galarraga-like FIP over 5. Frederick does help his luck by getting a metric ton worth of groundballs (and has 21 double plays turned as a result). What Fred does to hurt himself is walk 3 batters per 9 innings, and allow a bunch of HRs (18 in just over 115 innings, ouch). Now walking 3/9 IP would be ok if you were striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP like Justin Verlander (shit, it's not even that bad for someone like Edwin Jackson). But when you're a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (hey only 5 per 9 IP), you're getting a good amount of runners on the basepaths with a mix of walks and hits simply because you allow so many balls in play. Then when you factor the HRs in, it just gets really really ugly (thus, the FIP over 5). BUT, Fred is only 20 years old and will have a full year of big league experience under his belt for next season. If he can tighten up his command on his breaking pitches, and shave the walks, he will be a very dominant starter for a very long time. Just not now.
Last year was a very good year for Armando Galarraga, and he was on top of the world (or at the very least, on top of Detroit). His ERA wasn't amazing at 3.73. But in a rotation as awful as the 2008 Tigers, it was sterling. Armando may as well be the basis for this entire post, because his last season is what this season has been, a mirage. He was AMAZINGLY lucky with a .247 Batting Average on Balls in Play (which was among the league leaders), but peripherals that just didn't match or add up. He struck out just over 6 batters per 9 IP, and walked 3 per 9 IP, and allowed almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings (also terrible). What does this add up to? An FIP that's darn near 5. What is Armando's ERA this year, you ask? Why it's right around 5 (as is his FIP, just like last year). Galarraga has actually taken a small step back with his peripherals this year, and has been almost completely terrible all season. Karma can be a cruel thing. It's a far cry from the #2 starter that most moronic sports talk radio callers thought he would be, but this is what he is. He is a back end starter.
The 5th and final spot has been occupied by an unholy combination of Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner, Jarrod Washburn, Alfredo Figaro, Eddie Bonine, and Jeremy Bonderman. None of these starters has been any amount of good (which is disappointing for Bonderman, but to be expected from Washburn). Figaro and Bonine are just farmhands, and not a lot was expected from them. Willis showed a small glimpse of promise with a strong outing against the Texas Rangers early on in the season, but imploded to look like the Dontrelle Willis of 2008. Zach Miner has been in and out of the rotation and bullpen, and has looked terrible in both roles. Take Rick Porcello's walk and strikeout rates from this season, and apply them to a pitcher in his mid 30s and you have Jarrod Washburn. The problem with Washburn is he isn't a groundballer like Porcello, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play was at Armando Galarraga levels from 2008. Add to that the fact that the outfield defense in Seattle is one of the best in all of baseball, and you had a recipe for severe regression (Detroit's simply isn't even close). While Jarrod probably won't be quite as bad as he has been thus far for the Tigers, you probably shouldn't expect it to be a *lot* better. Washburn is absolutely not the 2.50-2.70 ERA that some fans thought the Tigers were trading for (and I pray to god the front office didn't think that's what they were getting in exchange for Robles and French).
What is it that you get after you add all of this together? An ace, a guy who'll give you quality start almost every time out (and maybe more), a 20 year old who may be a year or two away from really coming into his own and looks overmatched more often than not, and a couple of pitcher with FIPs approaching 5 (the very definition of back end starters). It's a far cry from what some were (and are) saying was a rotation that could go toe to toe with any in the AL in the playoffs. I believe that Verlander could stand toe to toe with any starter in baseball, and that Edwin Jackson would give the Tigers a shot to win against most teams #2 starter. But after that, you're working with a bunch of guys that are pitching like back of the rotation starters and I don't believe that's enough to get you by in the playoffs.
Then again, Josh Fogg lit it up in a couple of starts in the 2007 postseason (until the World Series, ack). So you never know.
But it's all a mirage.
The starting pitching has been lauded by pundits and fans so far this season on the backs of phenomenal performances from Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and at times Rick Porcello. But when you dig deeper you see that Verlander is the only pitcher of the bunch that has been truly dominant. Verlander has managed to put up an FIP under 3.00, but has been routinely hurt by the defense which is why his ERA isn't as good as someone like Jackson or Jarrod Washburn. The reason his FIP is so solid is because he's striking out the most batters in the AL, limiting his walks (under 3 per 9 innings), and keeping the longball in check. Justin has been an ace in every sense of the term this season, and has been a huge lift for Detroit the whole year (and I'll eat a plate full of crow for doubting him in Spring Training).
On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been severely overrated this season because of his top 5 AL ERA. Now do not get me wrong (don't do it!), I've got nothing but love for Edwin. However, I just think that what he is and what people think he is are two very different things. His FIP is almost 120 points higher than his ERA, and that is completely huge. He's brought his K rate back up to around 7 per 9 innings, and has shaved almost 1.5 BB/9 IP off of his career average (that's damn good improvement). His ERA has trended backwards in every month since the start of the season, and his August ERA is very close to what his season FIP is (around 4). But like I said, I'm completely fine with what Jackson is at this point (he is young enough that he could improve, though), and that is a guy that will more often than not give you a quality start and maybe more. This is all especially great because he's young, and was acquired for basically nothing (Matt Joyce was going to have a hard time finding playing time on the current Tigers team).
The rookie phenom Rick Porcello has had a very good season so far..........for a 20 year old. He's sporting an ERA that is north of 4 by a shade, but he's also doing that with a very Armando Galarraga-like FIP over 5. Frederick does help his luck by getting a metric ton worth of groundballs (and has 21 double plays turned as a result). What Fred does to hurt himself is walk 3 batters per 9 innings, and allow a bunch of HRs (18 in just over 115 innings, ouch). Now walking 3/9 IP would be ok if you were striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP like Justin Verlander (shit, it's not even that bad for someone like Edwin Jackson). But when you're a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (hey only 5 per 9 IP), you're getting a good amount of runners on the basepaths with a mix of walks and hits simply because you allow so many balls in play. Then when you factor the HRs in, it just gets really really ugly (thus, the FIP over 5). BUT, Fred is only 20 years old and will have a full year of big league experience under his belt for next season. If he can tighten up his command on his breaking pitches, and shave the walks, he will be a very dominant starter for a very long time. Just not now.
Last year was a very good year for Armando Galarraga, and he was on top of the world (or at the very least, on top of Detroit). His ERA wasn't amazing at 3.73. But in a rotation as awful as the 2008 Tigers, it was sterling. Armando may as well be the basis for this entire post, because his last season is what this season has been, a mirage. He was AMAZINGLY lucky with a .247 Batting Average on Balls in Play (which was among the league leaders), but peripherals that just didn't match or add up. He struck out just over 6 batters per 9 IP, and walked 3 per 9 IP, and allowed almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings (also terrible). What does this add up to? An FIP that's darn near 5. What is Armando's ERA this year, you ask? Why it's right around 5 (as is his FIP, just like last year). Galarraga has actually taken a small step back with his peripherals this year, and has been almost completely terrible all season. Karma can be a cruel thing. It's a far cry from the #2 starter that most moronic sports talk radio callers thought he would be, but this is what he is. He is a back end starter.
The 5th and final spot has been occupied by an unholy combination of Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner, Jarrod Washburn, Alfredo Figaro, Eddie Bonine, and Jeremy Bonderman. None of these starters has been any amount of good (which is disappointing for Bonderman, but to be expected from Washburn). Figaro and Bonine are just farmhands, and not a lot was expected from them. Willis showed a small glimpse of promise with a strong outing against the Texas Rangers early on in the season, but imploded to look like the Dontrelle Willis of 2008. Zach Miner has been in and out of the rotation and bullpen, and has looked terrible in both roles. Take Rick Porcello's walk and strikeout rates from this season, and apply them to a pitcher in his mid 30s and you have Jarrod Washburn. The problem with Washburn is he isn't a groundballer like Porcello, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play was at Armando Galarraga levels from 2008. Add to that the fact that the outfield defense in Seattle is one of the best in all of baseball, and you had a recipe for severe regression (Detroit's simply isn't even close). While Jarrod probably won't be quite as bad as he has been thus far for the Tigers, you probably shouldn't expect it to be a *lot* better. Washburn is absolutely not the 2.50-2.70 ERA that some fans thought the Tigers were trading for (and I pray to god the front office didn't think that's what they were getting in exchange for Robles and French).
What is it that you get after you add all of this together? An ace, a guy who'll give you quality start almost every time out (and maybe more), a 20 year old who may be a year or two away from really coming into his own and looks overmatched more often than not, and a couple of pitcher with FIPs approaching 5 (the very definition of back end starters). It's a far cry from what some were (and are) saying was a rotation that could go toe to toe with any in the AL in the playoffs. I believe that Verlander could stand toe to toe with any starter in baseball, and that Edwin Jackson would give the Tigers a shot to win against most teams #2 starter. But after that, you're working with a bunch of guys that are pitching like back of the rotation starters and I don't believe that's enough to get you by in the playoffs.
Then again, Josh Fogg lit it up in a couple of starts in the 2007 postseason (until the World Series, ack). So you never know.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
The Triumphant Return of Kyle Lohse
Kyle Lohse had to wait until almost the end of spring training to get signed by anyone. There weren't any restrictions in place for him, it's just that no one wanted to pay him the "Gil Meche money" he was seeking.
Right now any teams that were courting him probably aren't overly disappointed with their decision. That's not to say that some of them shouldn't be.
In 16 starts (94.1 innings) Lohse is 9-2, with a respectable 3.63 ERA. He's actually been St. Louis' 2nd best starter behind converted reliever Adam Wainright. But when you look just underneath the surface, Lohse isn't exactly a world-beater. His .277 BAbip isn't amazing, but it's still about 30 points lower than his career average (and this is a 29 year old). The strikeout rate has absolutely fallen off the table as he's down to little more than 4 K/9 (career 5.6 K/9). Having said that, he's helping himself out with only 2.3 BB/9 (down from 2.8 for his career). Staying away from the longball has also been quite a help. His HR rate is down from a little over 1 per 9 to a thin .6 HR/9.
Over his last 7 starts, Lohse has been nothing short of phenomenal only allowing 10 earned runs over that span. The more shocking thing is that he's only walked SEVEN in those starts as a whole. The good news for Tigers fans is that there were only 20 Ks in those seven games, so the ball will be around the plate (though that hasn't been good news for the 2008 Tigers for the most part).
With all of that positive must come a negative, right? Yes, it really does. Kyle Lohse has had a horrendous career against the Detroit Tigers. In a little over 100 IP, he sports an OPS against of .849 and an atrocious 5.74 ERA. In those innings he's allowed 17 HR and struggled to a 7-6 record against the boys from Detroit. The decent news for him is that half of his innings against the Tigers have come in Comerica (where the game is played tonight), and his stats are a tad bit more respectable there. The ERA drops a little over a full point, and only 6 of those 17 HRs came in Detroit.
Triumphant or not, Kyle Lohse returns tonight!
Right now any teams that were courting him probably aren't overly disappointed with their decision. That's not to say that some of them shouldn't be.
In 16 starts (94.1 innings) Lohse is 9-2, with a respectable 3.63 ERA. He's actually been St. Louis' 2nd best starter behind converted reliever Adam Wainright. But when you look just underneath the surface, Lohse isn't exactly a world-beater. His .277 BAbip isn't amazing, but it's still about 30 points lower than his career average (and this is a 29 year old). The strikeout rate has absolutely fallen off the table as he's down to little more than 4 K/9 (career 5.6 K/9). Having said that, he's helping himself out with only 2.3 BB/9 (down from 2.8 for his career). Staying away from the longball has also been quite a help. His HR rate is down from a little over 1 per 9 to a thin .6 HR/9.
Over his last 7 starts, Lohse has been nothing short of phenomenal only allowing 10 earned runs over that span. The more shocking thing is that he's only walked SEVEN in those starts as a whole. The good news for Tigers fans is that there were only 20 Ks in those seven games, so the ball will be around the plate (though that hasn't been good news for the 2008 Tigers for the most part).
With all of that positive must come a negative, right? Yes, it really does. Kyle Lohse has had a horrendous career against the Detroit Tigers. In a little over 100 IP, he sports an OPS against of .849 and an atrocious 5.74 ERA. In those innings he's allowed 17 HR and struggled to a 7-6 record against the boys from Detroit. The decent news for him is that half of his innings against the Tigers have come in Comerica (where the game is played tonight), and his stats are a tad bit more respectable there. The ERA drops a little over a full point, and only 6 of those 17 HRs came in Detroit.
Triumphant or not, Kyle Lohse returns tonight!
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The State of the Tigers
The Hitters: May was a down month for the Detroit Offense. Their team OPS dropped by almost .100 points, they hit nine less home runs, and their walks fell off the face of the Earth (122 in April, 67 in May)
Curtis Granderson - After a blazing hot start in his first six games back from the DL, Granderson hit a wall. Everyone knew that he wouldn't keep up a 1.49 OPS, but a .585 OPS was absolutely out of the question. His BAbip was .266, but that's nothing that's absolutely crippling. The crippling thing is that he only had six extra base hits all month, and actually struck out more than he hit (25 to 24).
Placido Polanco - Placido looked much more like himself in May. He doubled his hit total, while only taking four walks in the month. The ten doubles helped get his May slugging to .425 (compared to .342 in April).
Gary Sheffield - A .355 OBP is nothing to scoff at for a major league ballplayer. But if you're a #3 hitter on a ballclub that also sports Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez, you should probably sport a better slugging pct. than a paltry .354. Age and injuries may have finally broken Sheffield down completely.
Magglio Ordonez - Outside of Detroit (and very possibly even in Detroit), Maggs went completely under the radar in May. He put up an excellent .940 OPS, and even though he took half the walks that he did in April, his .381 BAbip made that a non-issue. He just keeps rollin'.
Carlos Guillen - After carrying the Tigers for most of April, Carlos regressed quite a bit in May. His OPS dropped from .938 in April to a below-league average .721 in May. He's beginning to show that his years of hitting more than 20 HRs in a year may be behind him with only five in the first two months.
Miguel Cabrera - I've spent quite a good portion of this young season defending Miguel, and it's beginning to get harder. You can't knock the guy for being inconsistent as far as his OPS goes, it's just that people would like it to be about .150 points higher. They don't pay the man the way they do for an above average OPS. Ten extra base hits a month just won't do the job.
Edgar Renteria - E6 had a horrible month of May. He had a decent, if only around average, April. But that fell completely off and he couldn't even manage to break a .300 OBP or slugging pct. One bad month doesn't make a player, but with Edgar's best years behind him and average defense at the best, his trade is going to look worse and worse as time passes.
Brandon Inge - Brandon only managed to get around 50 ABs, and he really didn't make them count. He put up an unimaginable .495 OPS and struck out twice as many times as he hit. And after that excellent showing of patience he had in April, he only walked once in May. It's hard to justify playing someone for their glove when they're putting up worse numbers offensively than a slumping Edgar Renteria.
Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames - Joyce looked phenomenal until major league pitchers learned to just give him the Pedro Cerrano treatment and throw him breaking balls. After he was sent down, it seemed as though Marcus Thames would see a big increase in ABs. This wasn't really the case, as he only had four more plate appearances in May than April. He made the most of those plate appearances though, rocking a .911 OPS. Two of his three home runs came in one game, but with a season as bad as this one, you take the good where you can.
The Starters: April was a horrible, horrible time to be a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. For whatever reason, May wasn't a whole lot better (oh wait, the reason is they suck).
Justin Verlander - While Verlander wasn't amazing in May, he was a hell of a lot better than April. He allowed more hits, but reduced his walks, and halved his runs allowed. The most odd thing about Verlander's May was that his BAbip went up by almost 40 points and yet his opponent's OPS dropped by .100. With his BAbip returning to normal and him getting better luck, this may be the start of something positive.
Jeremy Bonderman - Despite pitching six less innings in May, Bonderman walked 10 less, struck out 3 more, and allowed 3 less hits. Through all that, his ERA actually went up by 1.05. Bad luck was certainly part of it, and that's really nothing new for Jeremy.
Kenny Rogers - Three of Kenny's five starts in May were quality ones, but the other two were nothing to write home about. He didn't let the hits hurt too much, and his walks weren't too much of a problem either. Unless he gets injured, Rogers will continue to be very feast or famine.
Nate Robertson - You can count on two things. The sun will rise, and Nate Robertson will give up four runs in a start. Nine of his eleven starts have resulted in four earned runs or more. The positive for Nate in May was that lowered his ERA from 6.91. A May ERA of 5.15 isn't very pleasant though. He had one more start than in April, and allowed ten more hits and had four less strikeouts. The five home runs were kind of unsettling, and Nate is showing us all that 2006 was a nice fluke.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train was on the DL for much of May, and the Tigers didn't miss him at all. Sad but true. The fact that he just threw his first strikeouts of the season only after he'd walked eleven should tell you all you need to know about how his pitching has been.
Armando Galarraga - Galarraga has performed far better than anyone could've hoped, sporting the only ERA+ north of 100 (league average) on the staff. Having said that, his May was more along the lines of what people expected as his ERA shifted to 4.55. Basically multiply all of his April stats by three (other than IP), and you've got his May performance. Expect the regression to continue.
The Relievers: While the beginning of the season made it look like the Detroit bullpen was going to be some unlikely bright spot. Unfortunately regression has set in (shocker there), and they've turned into the house of horrors that everyone suspected they would be.
Casey Fossum - Fossum is absolutely terrible. Don't let anyone try to sway you into thinking any differently. At 29, he's not going to "figure" anything out as far as his terrible stuff. People can gander at the pretty AAA stats all they like, but a look at his career MLB stats will bring tears to your eyes (the despair kind).
Aquilino Lopez - Aside from one season that he pitched 70+ innings with the Blue Jays, he's a 33 year old reliever who hasn't ever really been amazing. He's been one of the better Detroit relievers this season, but will not be a guy who can be counted on to shut down an opposing team in any situation. He'll be a decent bullpen piece if he doesn't regress too hard.
Freddy Dolsi - Don't let the good ERA (1.54) fool you. He's only pitched 11 innings, and in those innings he's walked seven batters and only struck out 6. He gets hit around a good amount, to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP (sample size, I know).
Clay Rapada - A guy who's used as a lefty specialist, but awkwardly enough has a much higher batting average against with lefties (.273 against lefties, .200 against righties). Only 10 innings pitched, but he's been up and down.
Denny Bautista - Bautista is a nice example of people falling in love with a quick fastball. Yes it's fast, and his slider isn't too shabby either. Problem is, he's the same pitcher that he was in KC and Colorado. He doesn't strike out as many as his stuff would indicate, he walks too many batters (13 BB in 13 IP), and for whatever reason he's very hittable (12 H in 13 IP). It's only 13 innings, but a 1.875 WHIP is pretty eye-popping.
Bobby Seay - The great year that Bobby had last year in his age 29 season may have given some people unrealistic expectations. His stuff isn't overpowering, and he's been hit around pretty well so far. He's only walked eight in 17 innings, so I guess that's something.
Zach Miner - Miner has already allowed more earned runs in 31 innings than he had all of last season (53 innings). Mario and Rod will tell you all day that his stuff is excellent, but he hasn't translated that to a whole lot of success so far. He would probably do himself a favor if he had a bigger gap in his walks and strikeouts (18 BBs to 19 Ks).
Todd Jones - Walks have been more of a problem for Todd Jones than in recent years (he's on pace to walk 30% more batters than last year). Add in the fact that he still gets hit around pretty well, and this year has been pretty typical Todd Jones. He's already allowed three home runs, which is as many as he allowed all last season
The return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya seems like it would be a shot in the arm for this horrible crew. Though Tigers fans would probably do themselves well to temper their excitement until they actually make it up to the bigs again.
Overall, Tigers fans are going to continue to hope for what they have all season. For the team to not only play up to expectations, but anywhere near shouting distance of them.
Curtis Granderson - After a blazing hot start in his first six games back from the DL, Granderson hit a wall. Everyone knew that he wouldn't keep up a 1.49 OPS, but a .585 OPS was absolutely out of the question. His BAbip was .266, but that's nothing that's absolutely crippling. The crippling thing is that he only had six extra base hits all month, and actually struck out more than he hit (25 to 24).
Placido Polanco - Placido looked much more like himself in May. He doubled his hit total, while only taking four walks in the month. The ten doubles helped get his May slugging to .425 (compared to .342 in April).
Gary Sheffield - A .355 OBP is nothing to scoff at for a major league ballplayer. But if you're a #3 hitter on a ballclub that also sports Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez, you should probably sport a better slugging pct. than a paltry .354. Age and injuries may have finally broken Sheffield down completely.
Magglio Ordonez - Outside of Detroit (and very possibly even in Detroit), Maggs went completely under the radar in May. He put up an excellent .940 OPS, and even though he took half the walks that he did in April, his .381 BAbip made that a non-issue. He just keeps rollin'.
Carlos Guillen - After carrying the Tigers for most of April, Carlos regressed quite a bit in May. His OPS dropped from .938 in April to a below-league average .721 in May. He's beginning to show that his years of hitting more than 20 HRs in a year may be behind him with only five in the first two months.
Miguel Cabrera - I've spent quite a good portion of this young season defending Miguel, and it's beginning to get harder. You can't knock the guy for being inconsistent as far as his OPS goes, it's just that people would like it to be about .150 points higher. They don't pay the man the way they do for an above average OPS. Ten extra base hits a month just won't do the job.
Edgar Renteria - E6 had a horrible month of May. He had a decent, if only around average, April. But that fell completely off and he couldn't even manage to break a .300 OBP or slugging pct. One bad month doesn't make a player, but with Edgar's best years behind him and average defense at the best, his trade is going to look worse and worse as time passes.
Brandon Inge - Brandon only managed to get around 50 ABs, and he really didn't make them count. He put up an unimaginable .495 OPS and struck out twice as many times as he hit. And after that excellent showing of patience he had in April, he only walked once in May. It's hard to justify playing someone for their glove when they're putting up worse numbers offensively than a slumping Edgar Renteria.
Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames - Joyce looked phenomenal until major league pitchers learned to just give him the Pedro Cerrano treatment and throw him breaking balls. After he was sent down, it seemed as though Marcus Thames would see a big increase in ABs. This wasn't really the case, as he only had four more plate appearances in May than April. He made the most of those plate appearances though, rocking a .911 OPS. Two of his three home runs came in one game, but with a season as bad as this one, you take the good where you can.
The Starters: April was a horrible, horrible time to be a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. For whatever reason, May wasn't a whole lot better (oh wait, the reason is they suck).
Justin Verlander - While Verlander wasn't amazing in May, he was a hell of a lot better than April. He allowed more hits, but reduced his walks, and halved his runs allowed. The most odd thing about Verlander's May was that his BAbip went up by almost 40 points and yet his opponent's OPS dropped by .100. With his BAbip returning to normal and him getting better luck, this may be the start of something positive.
Jeremy Bonderman - Despite pitching six less innings in May, Bonderman walked 10 less, struck out 3 more, and allowed 3 less hits. Through all that, his ERA actually went up by 1.05. Bad luck was certainly part of it, and that's really nothing new for Jeremy.
Kenny Rogers - Three of Kenny's five starts in May were quality ones, but the other two were nothing to write home about. He didn't let the hits hurt too much, and his walks weren't too much of a problem either. Unless he gets injured, Rogers will continue to be very feast or famine.
Nate Robertson - You can count on two things. The sun will rise, and Nate Robertson will give up four runs in a start. Nine of his eleven starts have resulted in four earned runs or more. The positive for Nate in May was that lowered his ERA from 6.91. A May ERA of 5.15 isn't very pleasant though. He had one more start than in April, and allowed ten more hits and had four less strikeouts. The five home runs were kind of unsettling, and Nate is showing us all that 2006 was a nice fluke.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train was on the DL for much of May, and the Tigers didn't miss him at all. Sad but true. The fact that he just threw his first strikeouts of the season only after he'd walked eleven should tell you all you need to know about how his pitching has been.
Armando Galarraga - Galarraga has performed far better than anyone could've hoped, sporting the only ERA+ north of 100 (league average) on the staff. Having said that, his May was more along the lines of what people expected as his ERA shifted to 4.55. Basically multiply all of his April stats by three (other than IP), and you've got his May performance. Expect the regression to continue.
The Relievers: While the beginning of the season made it look like the Detroit bullpen was going to be some unlikely bright spot. Unfortunately regression has set in (shocker there), and they've turned into the house of horrors that everyone suspected they would be.
Casey Fossum - Fossum is absolutely terrible. Don't let anyone try to sway you into thinking any differently. At 29, he's not going to "figure" anything out as far as his terrible stuff. People can gander at the pretty AAA stats all they like, but a look at his career MLB stats will bring tears to your eyes (the despair kind).
Aquilino Lopez - Aside from one season that he pitched 70+ innings with the Blue Jays, he's a 33 year old reliever who hasn't ever really been amazing. He's been one of the better Detroit relievers this season, but will not be a guy who can be counted on to shut down an opposing team in any situation. He'll be a decent bullpen piece if he doesn't regress too hard.
Freddy Dolsi - Don't let the good ERA (1.54) fool you. He's only pitched 11 innings, and in those innings he's walked seven batters and only struck out 6. He gets hit around a good amount, to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP (sample size, I know).
Clay Rapada - A guy who's used as a lefty specialist, but awkwardly enough has a much higher batting average against with lefties (.273 against lefties, .200 against righties). Only 10 innings pitched, but he's been up and down.
Denny Bautista - Bautista is a nice example of people falling in love with a quick fastball. Yes it's fast, and his slider isn't too shabby either. Problem is, he's the same pitcher that he was in KC and Colorado. He doesn't strike out as many as his stuff would indicate, he walks too many batters (13 BB in 13 IP), and for whatever reason he's very hittable (12 H in 13 IP). It's only 13 innings, but a 1.875 WHIP is pretty eye-popping.
Bobby Seay - The great year that Bobby had last year in his age 29 season may have given some people unrealistic expectations. His stuff isn't overpowering, and he's been hit around pretty well so far. He's only walked eight in 17 innings, so I guess that's something.
Zach Miner - Miner has already allowed more earned runs in 31 innings than he had all of last season (53 innings). Mario and Rod will tell you all day that his stuff is excellent, but he hasn't translated that to a whole lot of success so far. He would probably do himself a favor if he had a bigger gap in his walks and strikeouts (18 BBs to 19 Ks).
Todd Jones - Walks have been more of a problem for Todd Jones than in recent years (he's on pace to walk 30% more batters than last year). Add in the fact that he still gets hit around pretty well, and this year has been pretty typical Todd Jones. He's already allowed three home runs, which is as many as he allowed all last season
The return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya seems like it would be a shot in the arm for this horrible crew. Though Tigers fans would probably do themselves well to temper their excitement until they actually make it up to the bigs again.
Overall, Tigers fans are going to continue to hope for what they have all season. For the team to not only play up to expectations, but anywhere near shouting distance of them.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Laying Eggs
A series that had so much promise for 6 innings on Friday night ended with a thud in the afternoon on Sunday.
The Tigers were shut out for the seventh time only a month and a half into the season by father time himself, Randy Johnson. The Big Unit was far from dominant, allowing seven baserunners in seven innings. He did strike out five, but the Tigers helped him along by stranding runner after runner (including a no out double by Miguel in the 4th).
Nate Robertson was hit around pretty well, giving up seven base hits and four walks in just 5.2 innings. He was having decent luck until he gave up a two-run double to Chris Young in the 5th. In the 6th Robertson loaded the bases full, with one of those being a walk to Randy Johnson after intentionally walking Miguel Montero. Freddy Dolsi came in to relieve him, and immediately walked Chris Young to bring in a run. The D-Backs tacked on another run off the Tigers bullpen before Zach Miner shut them down for the remainder.
In addition to the offensive ineptitude, Jim Leyland provided a nice head scratcher as well. He batted Pudge Rodriguez leadoff again because of the lefty on the mound (which he's done before, so it wasn't so surprising). But the problem was in the three-hole. Rather than just moving Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera up in the order, he hit Edgar Renteria third. Edgar has been good this season against lefties in a pretty small sample size at only 20 ABs. Over his career he slugs around .450 against southpaws, but with Cabrera and Ordonez around he shouldn't be hitting any higher than 5th.
Next on the agenda? A series with that other disappointing AL team, the Seattle Mariners.
The Tigers were shut out for the seventh time only a month and a half into the season by father time himself, Randy Johnson. The Big Unit was far from dominant, allowing seven baserunners in seven innings. He did strike out five, but the Tigers helped him along by stranding runner after runner (including a no out double by Miguel in the 4th).
Nate Robertson was hit around pretty well, giving up seven base hits and four walks in just 5.2 innings. He was having decent luck until he gave up a two-run double to Chris Young in the 5th. In the 6th Robertson loaded the bases full, with one of those being a walk to Randy Johnson after intentionally walking Miguel Montero. Freddy Dolsi came in to relieve him, and immediately walked Chris Young to bring in a run. The D-Backs tacked on another run off the Tigers bullpen before Zach Miner shut them down for the remainder.
In addition to the offensive ineptitude, Jim Leyland provided a nice head scratcher as well. He batted Pudge Rodriguez leadoff again because of the lefty on the mound (which he's done before, so it wasn't so surprising). But the problem was in the three-hole. Rather than just moving Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera up in the order, he hit Edgar Renteria third. Edgar has been good this season against lefties in a pretty small sample size at only 20 ABs. Over his career he slugs around .450 against southpaws, but with Cabrera and Ordonez around he shouldn't be hitting any higher than 5th.
Next on the agenda? A series with that other disappointing AL team, the Seattle Mariners.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Brooms Ahoy
Confidence isn't a word I would really use too often when talking about the 2008 Detroit Tigers. But going into Thursday's finale in KC, it was pretty safe to assume that the Tigers were probably pretty confident in their chances. They wouldn't be swept by the lowly Kansas City Royals. Kenny Rogers was taking the hill, on a roll with three consecutive quality starts. And they were facing a starter that they victimized in the season opener.
All that came to a screeching halt as the Gambler fell victim to a three run first inning, and a two run second shortly thereafter. By the time he'd exited after the fourth inning, KC had a seven-spot on the board, and fourteen men had reached base.
Gil Meche gave one back in the second inning, but looked nothing like the man Detroit had seen the first go round. It was just another day at the office for a Kansas City pitcher, going seven strong and keeping the foot on the Tigers' throat all day.
You know there is something seriously wrong when Matt Joyce (not really trying to slight the man too hard here) is seemingly the entire offense. Another home run was crushed to the right field grass, and he also added a sac fly.
The AL Central is still a jumbled mess, with first place and fourth place only 2.5 games apart. But the Tigers aren't even in that discussion because they're sitting in dead last, 3.5 games away from the nearest team (the Royals). The Indians have claimed first place, already have a six game cushion to work with, and all of their pitchers throwing zeros.
If Detroit doesn't make some sort of adjustment soon (cough, Gary Sheffield DL, cough), they could be in severe trouble. A visit to arguably the best team in the NL (the Snakes) is not going to help matters at all, and interleague play as a whole is not going to be a laugher for the AL this season.
All that came to a screeching halt as the Gambler fell victim to a three run first inning, and a two run second shortly thereafter. By the time he'd exited after the fourth inning, KC had a seven-spot on the board, and fourteen men had reached base.
Gil Meche gave one back in the second inning, but looked nothing like the man Detroit had seen the first go round. It was just another day at the office for a Kansas City pitcher, going seven strong and keeping the foot on the Tigers' throat all day.
You know there is something seriously wrong when Matt Joyce (not really trying to slight the man too hard here) is seemingly the entire offense. Another home run was crushed to the right field grass, and he also added a sac fly.
The AL Central is still a jumbled mess, with first place and fourth place only 2.5 games apart. But the Tigers aren't even in that discussion because they're sitting in dead last, 3.5 games away from the nearest team (the Royals). The Indians have claimed first place, already have a six game cushion to work with, and all of their pitchers throwing zeros.
If Detroit doesn't make some sort of adjustment soon (cough, Gary Sheffield DL, cough), they could be in severe trouble. A visit to arguably the best team in the NL (the Snakes) is not going to help matters at all, and interleague play as a whole is not going to be a laugher for the AL this season.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Falling Down
After a heartbreaking loss on Tuesday, the Tigers absolutely needed a good start from Justin Verlander. Only one of his starts has been quality, and the rest (seven of them) have been at least four earned runs or more. He was not the problem today.
The offense, on the other hand, was.
Kansas City rookie pitcher Luke Hochevar pitched six very strong innings of shutout ball. He threw less strikes than Verlander on a comparable amount of pitches, but was bailed out routinely by the Tigers thin bats. He walked three batters, but only allowed four base hits (none for extra bases), and struck out five. Detroit's bats looked, for the lack of a better word (by my choice), pathetic. In the season series so far against the Royals, the Tigers are 3-36 with runners in scoring position.
The Tigers young ace looked good, but not quite as good as his counterpart. The only real mistake came on a two RBI single by Joey Gathright in the second inning. It wasn't really a mistake as much as it was a decent piece of hitting on a very low breaking ball by the KC speedster. After that blip, he didn't allow another run to score in his 6+ innings of work. It really was just what the Tigers needed from him. It would be nice to see him throw more first pitch strikes, and not get behind on hitters that he should be challenging, but this start was very encouraging nevertheless.
Down 2-0 in the top of the 8th inning, Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen both got on with singles. On the first pitch of the next at bat, Magglio Ordonez grounded into a double play. A Miguel Cabrera ground out later, and the mild crisis was averted. After that poor showing by the heart of the order, it was left up to six, seven, and eight hitters in the 9th to salvage something. That was put to rest before anyone could blink. Joakim Soria struck out the first two batters he faced, and got a groundout to record his 10th save of the season.
That, my friends, is how you completely waste two quality starts from a couple of struggling starting pitchers.
The offense, on the other hand, was.
Kansas City rookie pitcher Luke Hochevar pitched six very strong innings of shutout ball. He threw less strikes than Verlander on a comparable amount of pitches, but was bailed out routinely by the Tigers thin bats. He walked three batters, but only allowed four base hits (none for extra bases), and struck out five. Detroit's bats looked, for the lack of a better word (by my choice), pathetic. In the season series so far against the Royals, the Tigers are 3-36 with runners in scoring position.
The Tigers young ace looked good, but not quite as good as his counterpart. The only real mistake came on a two RBI single by Joey Gathright in the second inning. It wasn't really a mistake as much as it was a decent piece of hitting on a very low breaking ball by the KC speedster. After that blip, he didn't allow another run to score in his 6+ innings of work. It really was just what the Tigers needed from him. It would be nice to see him throw more first pitch strikes, and not get behind on hitters that he should be challenging, but this start was very encouraging nevertheless.
Down 2-0 in the top of the 8th inning, Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen both got on with singles. On the first pitch of the next at bat, Magglio Ordonez grounded into a double play. A Miguel Cabrera ground out later, and the mild crisis was averted. After that poor showing by the heart of the order, it was left up to six, seven, and eight hitters in the 9th to salvage something. That was put to rest before anyone could blink. Joakim Soria struck out the first two batters he faced, and got a groundout to record his 10th save of the season.
That, my friends, is how you completely waste two quality starts from a couple of struggling starting pitchers.
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